Astrologer and market trader Arch Crawford (who once advised burying a stockpile of canned goods and an M-16 in the back yard) is once again warning of financial trauma. Not only is the current market in a “corrective” phase, he believes that it will crash a la 1987 somewhere near or on the fall equinox eclipse of 22 September 2006 and that we will be entering a “historic period” of “German-style” hyper-inflation which will last throughout 2007.
Arch Crawford’s Dim View Of Stocks
John Dobosz, 05.30.06, 12:15 PM ETNew York – It’s not a far-fetched notion that recurring patterns can be found in just about every earthly and human process. No doubt the oceans’ tides and the change of seasons move in predictable cycles. Human beings, bipolar or not, also experience mood changes that tend to run in cycles.
As Carl Jung would explain, human beings also seem to exhibit collective mood swings. And certainly, the oscillation between extremes of fear and greed are rather pronounced in the financial markets.
In the 1940s, Donald Bradley, the father of “financial astrologers,” came up with a model of movements in stock market levels that he attempted to correlate to astronomical movements. Over more than a half century since Bradley came up with his model, it has helped spawn a cottage industry in financial astrology.
One of today’s most prominent advocates is Arch Crawford, editor of Crawford Perspectives. Crawford uses the Bradley model to come up with his financial forecasts, which have at times been stunningly accurate. Crawford will tell you that the Bradley model is good at uncovering turning points but is ambiguous on whether the turning point is a high or a low. That’s where he uses his background as a former market technician at Merrill Lynch in the 1960s; he employs technical analysis to confirm what the Bradley model is telling him.
Crawford also applies technical analysis and financial astrology to other markets, including bonds, gold and commodities. According to Timer Digest, Crawford was the top gold timer for the 12-months ending in March of this year.
We recently spoke with Crawford about his outlook for gold and commodities, as well as what his work is telling him about the direction of the stock market. While he thinks it’s a smart move to buy on the dips in the commodities markets, you should be selling the spikes in stocks. Click here for the video with Arch Crawford.
In addition to investing in commodities, Crawford thinks that it might not be a bad idea to stash as much cash as possible. Somewhere.
UPDATE: Forbes writer John Dobosz is on a bit of a astrology (or astronomy, as he calls it) roll. Here is a link to an article and video of an interview with financial astrologer Bill Sarubbi, who managed the financial portfolios of wealthy Arabs in Abu Dhabi for 14 years. He is more widely known, in astrology circles, as Bill Meridian. Like Crawford, he is also saying “commodities.”
UDATE II: Another recent story on an astrologer-trader.
Fools and Knaves 
hey arch
its now october and dow is crashing upwards
are yous stil buying gold ???
if your long gold and short stocks
our in the house of pain
where is the crash?
Sam,where is the crash?
This was a very nicely written article.
Intelligent. Succinct. It even has nice phrases, etc.
That being said — Arch Crawford, God bless him, also predicted that the real estate market would crash as Saturn entered and transited Cancer.
Not only did real estate increase in value during this cancer transit, real estate continued to escalate in value beyond anyone’s expectations. It only showed some signs of weakness (two years later) as Saturn transited Leo.
Yes, Arch does often get it wrong, but when he’s right, he’s dead on. Unfortunately, one can’t really rely on his predictions. Some people I know actually lost money based on Arch’s dire predictions — since being out of the market (while expecting a crash) can cost you a lot of money when the stock market continues to escalate during a phenomenal bull market.
Gotta agree, can’t really rely on his predictions.
“In fact, over the last 5 years, the timing advice of only one market-timing newsletter among several dozen timers tracked by Hulbert Financial Digest has outpaced the simple strategy of buying and holding the Vanguard Index 500 fund, which mimics the S&P 500. The big claim to fame of that letter, CRAWFORD PERSPECTIVES, and its editor, Arch Crawford, is having called the crash of 1987 with total precision. Crawford also forecast the start of the 1997 correction – February 18 – to the day.
But Crawford is unlikely to attract a following because his letter mixes technical analysis with a heavy dose of astrology.”
KIPLINGER’S Personal Finance Magazine, July, 1997.
Crawford was also tracked by Hulbert as #2 Market Timer for the year of 2002!
Crawford Perspectives is currently ranked #2 Market Timer for accuracy in 2008 1st QTR!
my [comments] in square brackets:
In October of 2007, Bankrate consulted with a handful of people from a variety of different fields who regularly ponder the future, and asked them to look ahead and see what they expect for 2008.
Our experts included Arch Crawford, an astrologer who specializes in economic and financial issues. He’s been named No. 1 stock market timer by several publications and frequently appears on television shows such as “Good Morning America” and “The Wall Street Journal Report.”
Listed below are some of Crawford’s projections for the year ahead.
“The dollar will continue to unravel, with sharp rallies from time to time. It’s in a steep downward trend. I think it will go down 15 percent to 25 percent by December 2008.”
[a month to go but so far dollar index is way up. wrong]
What investments will do well? “Gold, oil, metals — commodities in general.”
“A similar situation to 1987, (the Fed) may have to jack up the (interest) rates to protect the dollar at some point.” Rates will rise more than 2 percent in 2008.
[wrong - rates are at all time lows]
Housing prices will be dropping “20 percent to 30 percent.” The housing market “will crash” in 2008, “drift lower in 2009,” then start to recover.
[you dont need a crytal ball for this statement]
“The (stock) market will have a significant decline, one of the 10 worst in history, sometime between Aug. 1, 2008, and March 31, 2009.”
[correct]
“Social programs will be an (election) issue because of a recession, and that would lean toward the Democrats. With recessionary forces in the economy, the public will probably lean toward greater social programs, which are usually championed by Democrats.”
[wow you dont say! again hardly a prediction]
“We’ll get out of (Iraq) when they run out of oil. I think necessarily because of the election, we will bring more people home. But we are not leaving there.”
[exactly-we will only be out when oil has run dry]
In 2008, unemployment “will be much higher.”
“Saturn is going to be in Virgo, which will be a major emphasis on health and health care issues.” Government, corporations and the president will be “fighting over re-engineering the health care system.”
[weak]
I’ve known Arch Crawford for many, many years. At one time we traveled the same seminar/workshop circuit. He’s a good man and knows his subject. I would rely on his timing forecasts, but would enter markets based on my own indicators, AND also limit my losses if my positions were wrong.
umm… I am no
i really never thought about that point. but also i’m a really newbie about that.
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Hulbert Financial Digest rating service reported Crawford Perspectives #1 Stock Market Timer during period Oct 1, 2007 to Oct 31, 2009.